Two crypto experts shared their crypto price predictions heading into the FOMC meeting tomorrow at 2pm ET and Jerome Powell’s speech.
FOMC Crypto Price Predictions
With crypto prices falling in the past 24 hours – Bitcoin and Ethereum are down 3 to 4% – many traders are derisking, waiting on the sidelines and searching for crypto expert analysis online:
Crypto Chase (@Crypto_Chase, formerly @Chase_NL) has approximately 100,000 followers across Twitter and YouTube and correctly sold BTC at over $56k and ETH above $4k.
His FOMC prediction is for crypto prices to crash in a ‘giga nuke’ if a 100 bps rate hike is the outcome – which the market predicts has a 16% probability of happening.
If a 75 basis points hike is announced, he expects liquidity to be run in both directions – choppy price action and the usual ‘Darth Maul candle’ to stop out longs and shorts – before the long term crypto price move is decided by Fed chair Powell’s comments.
Trading Tank (@TheTradingTank) posted a longer crypto prices outlook across an eight tweet thread.
His analysis was that since CPI numbers ‘came in hot’ and inflation was higher than expected, the stock and crypto markets may have sold off as a reaction to price in a 75 bps rate hike.
Similar to Chase Crypto, he expects a further sell off if a 100 bps hike is announced, potentially to test the lows (for the Bitcoin price, the $17,600 level hit in June) or crash further.
‘100bps would most likely create a sell-off and we could expect risk assets to test recent lows or maybe even break through. The actual economic effect of rate hikes does not fully materialize until 6+ months down the road, but investors behave as if they are immediate.’
However he also notes a 75 bps hike could improve sentiment and lead to a mid term crypto price rally – feeling like a ‘victory lap’ if it is already priced in.
Following the FOMC meeting, next week will see the release of US GDP data and PCE inflation data which Trading Tank argues is ‘just as important’.
We also reported this week on a third crypto analyst’s price prediction, Ted Talks Macro. He also predicted that the markets have priced in a 100 bps rate and will rally if 75 bps is announced.